The Bets: Saturday 1/21/23
Holy hell what a game that was to be on Monday Night if you were a Cowboys fan.
That place was ROCKING with Dallas fans going absolutely ecstatic. Being in Tampa Bay, I thought it would be mostly Bucs fans. Nope. At least 70% of Dallas fans were in attendance.
I don’t give a shit I lost my bet on Monday. I will take that every day if it means a Dallas playoff win…. That team is good.
Here is the blog’s total…
-0.54 Units (+1.97 Lifetime)
We’re back into the groove of things so let’s start by looking at some action for today. Great College Basketball slate and of course, the best weekend in football. NFL Divisional Round.
I have a fuck ton of bets today, but I only will be going over 5-7 of them, so make sure to check out my Action Network mobile page!
NFL Divisional Round
Football is king, it always will be, so let’s start with the two games going on today.
Jacksonville @ Kansas City 3:30 pm CST
(Chiefs -9.5, O/U 52.5)
Apparently, nobody loved my take on “You can’t praise Trevor Lawrence without saying it was his own damn fault he was put in the 24-0 situation”.
Do I think Lawrence is good? Yeah, of course. Who wouldn’t? But do I trust him in the playoffs? Absolutely not.
But you know who I do trust? Big Dick Douggie P coaching that team up. He is SUCH a good coach. I still don’t understand how Philly let him go. The way that he can take the reigns and control a situation no matter what it looks like is just phenomenal. He is going to be going up against an all-time Philly coach as well.
Andy Reid is just the definition of sexy, let’s be real. That guy is a hoss with a brilliant mind as well. So I can’t say there is any edge in the coaching department.
The one thing that scares me here is how BORED Kansas City has been in the past few games they have played. Now, I know this is the playoffs and there is all the motivation in the world on both sidelines, but KC may start slow with how bored they have been, or go up big and give Jacksonville a spot to shine and make a game out of nothing.
The Divisional Round is the best weekend in football. Period. All of the games end up being extremely exciting so it is only rightfully so that they are close. That’s why you have to take the points. This game will not end up being a 10-point loss. I’m also going to sprinkle just a little on the ML, since you just never know…
Jacksonville +9.5 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
Jacksonville ML (+385)
Risk 0.25 Units to win 0.98
New York (Giants) @ Philadelphia 7:15 pm CST
(Eagles -8, O/U 48.5)
Divisional Rivals playing each other in the Divisional Round of the playoffs is poetry. You have to be romantic about football and this game. The fact that the NFC East has 3 teams in the Divisional Round is extremely impressive.
The health of this Philly team, and their QB, is what everyone cares about. If Jaylen Hurts is fully healthy, this spread is looking more like 11.5 points. But Vegas knows that he isn’t going to be 100%. Philly has talked about how they are going to run their offense the exact same as if Hurts is 100%, and I believe that because Nick Sirianni is that stupid.
The Eagles are going to come out ON FIRE and put up points quickly. Hurts is going to do his thing and just look unstoppable. But, he isn’t going to be feeling okay come the second half. You play 4 quarters for a reason (Jacksonville/Los Angeles).
This Giants team is weird. They don’t die. They are like a little roaches. They’re going to stay within a two-score game, and just all of a sudden score, get a stop, and score. I really like Danny Dimes’ chance of getting another playoff win under his belt.
I have a few bets for this game. By my logic, Eagles will cover the first half, but then let the Giants come back a bit and get within the number. If the Eagles do not come out hot and it is a tight game at halftime, I’m going to still have faith the Giants can cover.
SPRINKLE THE MONEYLINE HERE AS WELL
This is the Divisional round for fucks sake. These spreads are way too fat.
New York +8 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
New York ML (+300)
Risk 0.25 Units to win 0.75
Philly 1H -4.5
New York +8 (Full Game)
+600
Risk 0.5 Units to win 3.00
NCAA Basketball
I’ve been needing to start to pay more attention to this, so let’s start off hot.
Iowa @ Ohio State 1:00 pm CST
(OSU -3.5, O/U 153.5)
The Public loves Ohio State here. They have lost 5 in a row, failing to cover all 5 games. Coming home to a crowd that will do everything they can to give them an edge, people love to think Ohio State isn’t that bad.
But Iowa’s team is so fucking weird. Usually a team you think to be big in the paint and knock you around, instead, they are a lot more finesse this year and a big shooting team. Sure, their transition defense is terrible and Ohio State is going to look to take advantage of that, you gotta take the points here, especially since the favorite is a team that doesn’t know how to win games.
The last time Ohio State was at home they lost to MINNESOTA as 14.5-point favorites. Fuck that why would you put money on THIS team?
Iowa +3.5 (-112)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.89
Texas A&M @ Kentucky 1:00 pm CST
(Kentucky -5, O/U 134.5)
Cal is coaching for his job, officially. This Kentucky team has been so disappointing this year. Losing back-to-back games in Bama and then at home against South Carolina as 19.5-point favorites is absolutely terrible.
You can make the same argument I used to shit on Ohio State here with the Wildcats, but Kentucky has already bounced back. Winning in Tennessee as an 11.5-point underdog showed resilience. It showed that the players are bought in and care for Cal, they don’t wanna see this dude get canned due to their season.
Also, be careful here. You don’t want to have Coach Cal with a chip on his shoulder come March, that spells danger for everyone else…
Fuck the Aggies, I don’t care they are undefeated in SEC play. They lose today and lose big.
Kentucky -5 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
Texas @ West Virginia 5:00 pm CST
(West Virginia -1, O/U 146.5)
Texas is such a frustrating team to root for. I can’t say that I am a DIE HARD Longhorns fan, but it’s the college team that I hope succeeds the most. I love Texas, the burnt orange, and the school's history. Everything is bigger in Texas.
Especially the scandals your head coach goes through en route to being a scum bag and being fired from the program mid-year.
How difficult is that for these players? The dude you trusted, sat in your living room, and convinced your mother that you would be raised to be a good man who respects hard work and dedication, is a scum bag who deserves to rot.
Texas is either going to fold under pressure immediately come March, or win the whole god damn tournament, and this is another test. Texas still hasn’t figured it all out, but I have had a really good read on them this year with both sides of the coin. I can tell you if they’re going to blow dick or excel.
They are winning this game. There is too much talent on this Texas team. They can take over and possess the shit out of the ball while suffocating you on the defensive end. I see that happening here today.
Texas ML (-105)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.95
Zabe’s Futures
In this section, I will keep track of any futures that I will be placing for The Blog.
December 11, 2022: CASHED
Georgia to win the NCAAF Championship (-130)
Risk 4 Units to win 3.08
If you have been following along on my Saturday “The Bets” blogs, you will know my opinion on this Georgia team and the other three teams in this playoff. Georgia is just SO much better.
Remember Bama in their hay day? Yeah, that is this team and we are STILL getting decent odds because people don’t want to accept that the playoff system is still non-competitive.
Now, this play DOES count for the blog. If it hits, it will go toward The Blog’s total. If it misses, the -4 will still go towards The Blog’s total.
Zabe’s Past
2022 Total (October start): +2.51 Units
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