The Bets: Sunday 1/22/23
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I guess being in the playoffs isn’t enough motivation for some teams.
The New York “Football” Giants looked like absolute garbage last night. Players giving up on tackles, jogging to the ball, and not committing to blocks. I can’t believe I expected Daboll to get his guys up for that game.
And punting down 3 scores in the 4th quarter when you’re on the 50-yard line is inexcusable. The bright lights were too much for Daboll, remember that next year.
If it wasn’t for yesterday’s College Basketball I would be looking a lot worse. Not too much damage done, posting a -0.23 Units overall, bringing the Blog’s 2023 total to…
-0.77 Units (+1.74 Lifetime)
Today I will be making the largest bet I have made in this Blog’s young life. Let’s see how it goes…
As of writing I currently have no additional plays, but I am a slut for live bets, so make sure to check out my Action Network mobile page!
Cincinnati @ Buffalo 2:00 pm CST
(Bills -5.5, O/U 48.5)
Nothing frustrates me more than Cincinnati fans clamoring online and saying that this game should be at a neutral site. It is true if the Bengals would have won in week 17 then this game would be in Cinci, but as we all know that game was canceled due to what happened to Damar Hamlin.
Both these teams played the same amount of games, and the Bills won more. Done deal!
And the fact that the NFL is selling tickets to the potential AFC Championship in Atlanta if the Bills win is not shocking. Why wouldn’t they? Bengals fans are taking it as a slight to their team when in reality the NFL does this all the time. You can buy tickets for an AFC Championship game in KC if the Bengals win too.
Now to the game. The Bengals’ offensive line is beaten up, yes. So is Buffalo’s defensive line. Von Miller not being able to play hurts this team a lot more than you think. This paired with Burrow’s second-highest snap-to-release time is making the line issues almost a nonfactor.
What you have to think about here is the Bills when they are favored by 5 or more. Buffalo is 5-7 against the spread when favored by 5 points or more. The most recent game was last week as two-touchdown favorites winning by 3 against the Dolphins.
That was Buffalo’s wake-up call. It’s not like this team is new to the playoffs, but they took that game off as a team and it showed. They will not make the same mistake twice.
Another angle to look at is how these coaches are going to approach the game. The weather looks like it’s going to be a combination of rain and snow. You do not want to turn the ball over in weather like this. Both teams are going to play uber-cautious and run the clock. This bodes well for the total going under.
Bills -5.5 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
Under 48.5 (-105)
Risk 1 Units to win 0.98
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 5:30 pm CST
(49ers -4, O/U 46.5)
I doubted Dak and the Cowboys last week. I’m not doing that again. THIS is where the Daily Double resides….
This will be the largest wager I have written about so far, and I am very confident in it. Yes, I am a die-hard Dallas fan, but this pick is made with my good ol’ noodle.
Brock Purdy is a fantastic story. From Mr. Irrelivant to what seems to be a top 10 QB in this Kyle Shanahan system. Shanahan knows what he is doing as an offensive-minded coach. His run schemes are just fantastic and absolutely beautiful to watch from a football standpoint. There are very few coaches that understand how he does it.
But one of those coaches that truly DOES understand is Dallas’ defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn. Shanahan looks at Quinn as a mentor, a role-model if you will. Quinn knows how to blow up these schemes, you just need the right people to do it. Last year, Dallas’ starting LB was out, which hinders your ability to defend the run. This year? Fully healthy on the defensive line and linebacker group.
Brock will have to beat Dallas with his arm. Dallas takes away the ball better than any team in this league, which spells danger for this young quarterback.
I’m not saying Dallas has a cakewalk here. They will have trouble on the offensive end as well. Dak has to take care of the ball, but he is coming off the best game of his career. My early prediction is that we are seeing a Joe Flacco type of run here from Dak. Joe finished the playoffs with 11 TDs and 0 INTs. Dak is already at 5 and 0.
Yes, take the Cowboys to win the game, but that is not the large wager… The large wager is on the 49ers….
The 49ers team total going UNDER here. Yes, this team is outstanding but in a windy game, Dallas will be able to blitz and get pressure consistently on Brock. Brock is going to turn over the ball and look like the rookie that he is. Mr. Irrelevant is going to look…. Irrelevant.
Cowboys ML +170
Risk 1 Unit to win 1.70
49ers Team Total Under 25.5 (-105)
Risk 3 Units to win 2.94
Zabe’s Futures
In this section, I will keep track of any futures that I will be placing for The Blog.
December 11, 2022: CASHED
Georgia to win the NCAAF Championship (-130)
Risk 4 Units to win 3.08
Zabe’s Past
2022 Total (October start): +2.51 Units
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