The Bets: Sunday 1/29/23
“When Zabe starts talking NBA”
This was sent to me from a good friend on Friday morning after I went 1-3 in NBA Picks on Thursday’s “The Bets” Blog.
Thanks Cam.
ANYWAY the Bulls are dead. How do you lose on the road as favorites to a tanking Hornets team? They are literally trying to lose and you still can’t be competitive. Very fortunate to not go 0-4 as we needed Celtics Knicks to go into OT to get the Celtics Team Total over, but still missed out on our Jaylen Brown over by 5 points and our Robert Williams Double Double by a single bucket.
Shit happens, but NBA season is definitely #FadeZabe. If I’m starting to be a loser please fade me. It’s just as hard to go 0-10 as it is to go 10-0.
The 1-3 Thursday resulted in -1.59 Units bringing The Blog’s YTD total to…
-0.44 Units (+2.07 Lifetime)
Back in the red is sad, but it happens. Today will be focused on the two championship teams, but I will be placing many player props including my own personal ladder challenge. If you are not familiar with the ladder challenge, it is when you place a $10 bet (normally it is a 4-6 leg parlay full of heavy favorite player props) and double your winnings every day for 10 days. This will result in a $10,000 win (I would definitely not risk $5,000 EVER on a bet, so it will be lower increments of bets), so be sure to follow my Action Network mobile page!
San Francisco @ Philadelphia 2:00 pm CST
(Eagles -2.5, O/U 45.5)
I was shocked to see this line. 2.5 points? This is the EAGLES in Philly! Vegas only putting them as two-and-a-half-point favorites is showing that they have a lack of faith in the NFC 1-Seed.
Both teams have an amazing defense, an outstanding offensive line, and an offense that really works for their team. It is going to come down to if Jaylen Hurts can make the big plays, and if Brock Purdy can take care of the football and let his playmakers make plays (Deebo, CMC, Kittle)
Brock Purdy’s story is literally a Disney storyline. He is the fifth Rookie QB to lead their team to a championship game, where the past 4 have lost in this spot. I want to believe in Brock so badly, but this Philly team is supposed to be the real deal. They have been the favorites from the NFC since draft night 2022 and it is coming to fruition.
But upon looking at the Action Network bet tracking data, it appears that 65% of the public is on the Eagles, and 86% of the money is also on Eagles -2.5.
The amateur bettors and the professional sharps are both on Philly. It can’t be this easy, right? Like, Vegas doesn’t just hand out money… Something is fishy here.
With both defenses being as amazing as they are, I’m very confident in the Under, but I’m also going to fade the population on this spread, and take the Niners. It shouldn't be THIS easy for a bet on the Eagles. We’re missing something here that Vegas knows but we don’t
Niners/Eagles UNDER 45.5 (-110)
Risk 1.5 Units to win 1.37
Niners +2.5 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
Cincinnati @ Kansas City 5:30 pm CST
(Chiefs -2.5, O/U 47.5)
In complete and utter honesty, I have no fucking clue how to handicap this game.
The Monday after the Chiefs game last week, Mahomes could not put weight on his leg at all. The swelling and pain was just way too much and the dude HAD to use crutches to get around his home and facility.
Wednesday Mahomes was jogging and able to do 3-step, 5-step, and 7-step drop backs like it was nothing. Now, we don’t know what he was taking for pain management and if it is legal to use on game day, but Jesus that dude is different.
And holy fuck is Cinci getting cocky. Everyone from players on the team to the mayor of Cincinnati is calling Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium “Burrowhead”. Like, do you really want to poke the bear?
Do you really want to give the Chiefs bulletin board material?
Just take a look at this…
Like, shut the fuck up dude. I hope he realizes that if Joe Burrow and the Bengals can’t take care of business today, and are sent home without a ticket to the Super Bowl, this dude is fucked for the next election.
I would be SO PISSED if that is my Mayor…. And KC Players notice…
“See yall at Burrowhead”
Yeah… I’m not wanting to bet against that guy…
So here’s the deal you gamblers. Don’t bet on this game… YET
Wait until you see a drive or two. You have to gauge Patty Mahomes and see how that leg is holding up. I truly believe that he will be fine for a quarter or two, but you can’t get shot up with pain meds mid-game if you got it pre-game… So he is going to be hurting in the second half.
Live bet the fuck out of this game.
Take the Chiefs first half ML and then look for a Cincy comeback… Maybe get spicy and parlay a Chiefs 1H ML with a Bengals full-game ML.
Chiefs 1H ML (-118)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.85
Zabe’s Futures
In this section, I will keep track of any futures that I will be placing for The Blog.
December 11, 2022: CASHED
Georgia to win the NCAAF Championship (-130)
Risk 4 Units to win 3.08
Zabe’s Past
2022 Total (October start): +2.51 Units
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