The Bets: Saturday 1/7/23
WE ARE BACK
Holy shit I ended 2022 cold. I can’t stand bowl season. Every bowl game is more football, yes. But, it’s essentially week 18 in the NFL when teams don’t play starters and everyone is just looking at each other like “why are we here?”
The blog was at +7.51 Units and after a terrible New Year’s Eve Eve, The Blog went -5 Units bringing our total to…
+2.51 Units
So, this is what I want to do. I want to track my unit total by the year. I know The Blog’s life in 2023 was lived short, but we have to move on. I have one play already on the card scheduled to hit or miss on Monday, so the net gain or loss from that bet (in the futures section) will be on my 2023 Unit total.
Say goodbye to 2022. New Year, New Zabe.
My HUGE 2022 total will be left at the bottom of The Bets Blog every time I post, as a reminder of how fucking mediocre I am.
The pressure is on. Time to perform. Do not want my total to ever be in the red so I HAVE to go positive here.
Today, I’m hitting you with 2 NFL plays, 2 NCAAB plays, and 1 NHL play!
Make sure you check out my “futures” section at the bottom. More to add soon!
If you want to see my Full Card (Some EPL plays, NCAAB plays, and other parlays today) please check out my Action Network mobile page!
There is a shit ton of games today, but I want to address the elephant in the room with the NFL…
It is scary as fuck when you see something happen like what happened to Damar Hamlin of the Buffalo Bills.
It is very amazing to see his recovery progress so far, and I continue to pray for his recovery to a happy and healthy life.
Let’s talk about the two NFL games that are on the slate, and what you need to know about going into these games.
Kansas City @ Las Vegas 3:30 pm CST
(Chiefs -8.5, O/U 52.5)
In the NFL there are some terrible fans. There are those that send death threats to players due to their play, those that will throw batteries at Santa, and those that will root for injury.
But then, there are the Chiefs fans on Twitter last week post Bills-Bengals game.
Fans of the Chiefs were DEAD ASS SERIOUS when they were claiming that the Bills and Bengals are lucky that this game got canceled since it’s essentially “A free bye week while the Chiefs had to play”
Bro… are you fucking kidding me? I feel like Patrick Mahomes would gladly play a full game on Sunday rather than what happened on Monday to one of his teammates.
On top of this, Roger Goodell came from over the top and punished the Bills and Bengals for canceling this game by now granting the Chiefs the 1 seed and the playoff bye. All KC has to do is win this game.
Talk about unfair. Bills are the rightful one seed. Now, I know if the Bills play the Chiefs in the AFC Championship it will be at a neutral field, same thing if the Bengals are involved in the AFC Championship as well, but that still just feels dirty that the Bills are being forced to play an extra game in the playoffs now due to this decision.
Some things are bigger than sports. This is my “Bad sports karma” play of the week. Chiefs fans, you don’t deserve this win. You don’t deserve the 1 seed.
Raiders come out and keep it close. Let’s go StidHIM!
Raiders +8.5 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
Tennessee @ Jacksonville 7:15 pm CST
(Jaguars -6.5, O/U 39.5)
Nobody thought that this game would matter two months ago. Everyone thought that the Titans had a chokehold on this division and the Jags were in the dumps.
But now, Jacksonville is Jaggin’ off.
This team is HOT. Something special is happening here. Their play is phenomenal and it’s being led by Coach Doug Pederson who was wrongfully fired from his previous job of being the Philadelphia savior, so his redemption tour is going really nice.
On the other side of the field, Tennessee has been complete shit. So fucking bad.
Joshua Dobbs isn’t necessarily terrible, he’s a decent backup and I’m sure a really nice guy. But he is not a franchise quarterback, and not the guy you want in a “Win and in” game that the Titans have here.
But god dammit, I can’t quit on Coach Mike Vrabel.
This is HIS spot. He made his career off of spots like this.
In enemy territory, everyone is counting you out (Touchdown underdog???), and you look like you are dead in the water.
This is Vrabel’s spot.
I am not going to put The Blog’s money on the line for a Titans win, but the fact that Vrabel is being counted out as noses are being stuck up toward him is when he plays best. Don’t get this wrong, bet on the dog.
Titans +6.5 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
College Basketball Time
Texas @ OK State 11:00 am CST
(Texas -3, O/U 137.5)
I’m a big Texas guy when it comes to college sports. I would always love to say they are my Big 12 team and my National Team, but their moving to the SEC soon will fuck that with my LSU love.
ANYWAY, I’ve been watching this team closely this year. Ex-Coach Chris Beard is a scumbag asshole who better not get another chance at any university. He is gone and it is going to impact the team in one way or another.
This is a team that is built on their defensive prowess and gave up 116 points to KState last week.
Holy shit that is a lot of points. But here’s the good news, they bounce back. No reason why we need to think just because of one bad game this is no longer a defensive team, and the Cowboys on OK State do not score the ball THAT efficiently.
The Cowboys’ current team total is 68.5. They have surpassed this total in only 5 of their 14 games, and it was against no-name teams. Literally, one was named “Texas A&M-CC Islanders” What the fuck?
Too many points, Texas strangles this team.
OK State Team Total Under 68.5 (-115)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.87
Arkansas @ Auburn 7:30 pm CST
(Auburn -2.5, O/U 141)
I love both of these teams this year. Arkansas is one half of my National Championship game prediction (Longhorns being the other half)
Now, I don’t love this spread. Yes, it is going to be a close game, but I can see this being a 3-point game that Arkansas feels like they have to extend and it keeps just hovering at a 3 or 4-point lead for Auburn.
What I do love is the total. These teams are going to be balling. Auburn at night is a sight and that place will be full of energy. Asking each team to put up 70 isn’t that hard of a task.
I could see it being in the low to mid-60s with only a couple of minutes left, but the extending of play will help the total here.
Bet the over folks, and have some fun!
Arkansas/Auburn OVER 141 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
NHL TIME BABY
It’s been a while since I’ve written about Hockey, but there is one play that passes a system that I love and is profitable.
Minnesota @ Buffalo 6:00 pm CST
(Wild -114, O/U 6.5)
When a visiting team is well rested (meaning they have had 3 or 4 days off) and are favorites, they win 65% of games dating back to 2005!!
Most games are coinflips, this one you are telling me if I have a 65% chance of winning, I always bet it. Smart play here and the only one I BEG you to tail. Won’t be a daily double, let’s work our confidence back up to that.
Oh, and this trend has been profitable in 2022-23 as well, hitting 16 out of 26 times this season.
Go Wild!
Wild ML (-114)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.88
Zabe’s Futures
In this section, I will keep track of any futures that I will be placing for The Blog.
December 11, 2022:
Georgia to win the NCAAF Championship (-130)
Risk 4 Units to win 3.08
If you have been following along on my Saturday “The Bets” blogs, you will know my opinion on this Georgia team and the other three teams in this playoff. Georgia is just SO much better.
Remember Bama in their hay day? Yeah, that is this team and we are STILL getting decent odds because people don’t want to accept that the playoff system is still non-competitive.
Now, this play DOES count for the blog. If it hits, it will go toward The Blog’s total. If it misses, the -4 will still go towards The Blog’s total.
Zabe’s Past
2022 Total (October start): +2.51 Units
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