The Bets: Sunday 12/11/22
THE BETS ARE BACK!
I have been ready to go for today for what seems to be a very long time.
I LOVE THIS BOARD
All of these games seem so simple and obvious. I am BEGGING you to tail me this Sunday. Let’s make money together
The last time I wrote, it was the best holiday in the world: Thanksgiving. The blog was at +11.87 Units and after a Turkey Day where we went 4-2 (True Daily Double winner in Giants) our net gain was +2.59 Units bringing The Blog’s total to…
+14.46 Units
Fuck. Yes.
Ten-dollar bettors: that’s you being up 144 bucks
Twenty-dollar bettors: you are up 288 bucks
I want to be up TWENTY UNITS by January 1.
Let’s make it happen.
Today I have SEVEN plays (one being tomorrow night), and TWO TRUE DAILY DOUBLES.
Zabe Country, Let’s ride.
Make sure you check out my “futures” section at the bottom. More to add soon!
If you want to see my Full Card (Live Bets and other parlays are there) please check out my Action Network mobile page!
Minnesota @ Detroit 12:00 pm CST
(Lions -2, O/U 51.5)
I am going to say this right out of the gate. DO NOT BET ON THE LIONS TODAY
Vegas does this every now and then. They set a line like this where you say…
“Oh this makes no sense, Lions should no the favorites, Vegas must know something. I am going to take the team that shouldn’t be favorites!”
DON’T LET THEM FOOL YOU
The real excuse for why the line is the way it is; is the money. People are FLOODING this line with SO MUCH MONEY
According to Action Network (Who gets their shit right) there is 87% of the money coming in on the Lions. That means big-time bettors and loser bettors who write about their bets are agreeing on this game and everyone is betting on the Lions.
What’s the number 1 rule? The house always wins.
With that being said, I am not going to bet on the Vikings here either. The real play is the total.
The last time these two teams met, it was a back-and-forth game that ended in a 28-24 win for the Purple People Eaters.
Also, the total between these two teams has eclipsed 52 points 4 out of their last 5 meetings
TAKE THE OVER. DON’T TOUCH THE SPREAD
Lions/Vikings Over 51.5 (-107)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.93
Philidelphia @ New York (Giants) 3:30 pm CST
(Philidelphia -7, O/U 44)
DING! DING! DING!
I am obsessed with this game. From multiple different angles.
The Eagles just SMOKED the Titans. A game that was supposed to be close, ended up being an absolute ass handing by the NFC Superbowl Favorites.
The Giants, oh boy… TIED (Which I actually love for the NFC East)
I want the entire NFC East to be in the playoffs, so that tie was great for that.
But close your eyes and think about this. Division rivals are meeting. One team is riding high, and the other fighting for their lives. The fighters are at home and are told they are being GIVEN 7 points in this affair.
Hungry dogs run faster. Plain and simple.
I truly don’t think the Eagles should be NFC favorites.
I truly don’t think the Eagles will win the NFC East…
But that’s for another blog…
DING! DING! DING!
THAT’S FUCKIN’ RIGHT! BOTH OF MY DAILY DOUBLES ARE ON THIS GAME
The Giants muck it up today. The defense steps up, offense slowly stays in it. It’ll be something hideous like 14-13 Eagles leading late in the fourth. Can the Giants pull off the upset today?
I SAY YES
Sprinkle 1/4 unit or 1/3 unit on the ML today of +250 on the G-Men
But for the blog, the picks are clear and easy.
TAKE THE UNDER
Divisional teams in the cold are going to get in a ROCK FIGHT
I fucking love gambling
Giants +7 (-100)
Risk 2 Units to win 2
Giants/Eagles Under 44 (-107)
Risk 2 Units to win 1.87
(If you’re not familiar with that gif, please watch this video)
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco 3:25 pm CST
(49ers -3, O/U 37.5)
The 49ers were in fact my NFC pick for the Super Bowl before Jimmy G went down.
I am a homer when it comes to my Cowboys in the NFC, but this team was special by the Bay.
But Jimmy G is down, and we have to trust Brock Purdy to lead the team? I completely understand that with Kyle Shanahan you don’t need to be an elite QB to be successful, but c’mon…
I understand Tom is washed. I understand this Tampa team is not a Super Bowl contender.
But you don’t give Tom 3 points when he is going to his favorite city in the world to square off against some rookie shmuck.
Maybe Brock gets the win. If he does, then I can change my tune in the future about this team in the playoffs. But beating Tom by more than a field goal is tough to do as a rookie. I’m taking the GOAT.
Clear and obvious pick. Do not overthink it.
Buccaneers +3 (-100)
Risk 1 Unit to win 1
Carolina @ Seattle 3:25 pm CST
(Seahawks -3.5, O/U 44.5)
I need to acknowledge something. The Seahawks are a good team. They are legit and I would give them the stamp of “Don’t want to see them in the playoffs”
But as great as their QB has been with Geno needing head nods toward his MVP-type numbers, this offense is built around the running game.
Kenneth Walker is a stud. With him being out, that is irreplaceable offensive efficiency.
Believe it or not, this Carolina defense is good. Like, GOOD good.
I like the under here, but I know the play is taking the points.
Sam Darnold can be effective in this type of offense. Carolina has all three RBs ready to go. This game is going to be a BIG TEN punt-off. Get ready to root for some coffin corner kicks baby
Panthers +3.5 (-107)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.93
Fuck. Writing this talked myself to take the under as well. I love writing it helps me see the light. Take the under, fuck it.
Panthers/Seahawks Under 44.5 (-107)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.93
Miami @ Chargers 7:20 pm CST
(Dolphins -3, O/U 55)
I am going to be very transparent. This is a caveman brain play.
It’s Sunday night. I need points. I want to sit down and enjoy the fuck out of a good game.
The Dolphins will surpass 27 points, but can the Chargers?
I think so.
But the REAL reason why it is the over, is Justin Herbert’s “Are you good?” Game of the Year.
Is Justin Herbert actually good? Like, everyone says he’s good but is he really? All of his games he ends up losing by one score… Sounds like a guy who can’t get the job done.
So Herbert, here is what you have to do to be considered good…
1) Win the game. If you do that then nobody will doubt it, but you also need to…
2) Score points. If this is a low-scoring win, you are still not great. Good QBs show up against good teams. This is a good Miami team. You need to score.
Dolphins/Chargers Over 55 (-107)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.93
Monday Night Football
New England @ Arizona 7:20 pm CST
(Patriots -1, O/U 43.5)
I almost… ALMOST made this a THIRD Daily Double game. THAT is how much I love this spot.
Kyler has been GRINDING film. He is getting better and better. It is insane the skills that he shows day in, and day out.
But, unfortunately, the film grinding, the skill increase, is not in his NFL career, it’s for his MLG Call of Duty Warzone Career.
The guy just doesn’t love football. I would go as far as saying he doesn’t even like it.
You know who LOVES football? Bill Belichick. The fact that he gets extra time to plan for this game is orgasmic to him.
Some guys would look at the extra day off as some time to spend with the wife, but fuck no, not Bill. He is PUMPED he gets and extra 24 hours to watch this terrible team on tape and how to stop every inch of this offense.
FUCK I’M DOING IT
DING! DING! DING!
DAILY DOUBLE FUCK IT
Now, this is not a TRUE Daily Double, but we gotta do a little more than just 1 unit on this obvious winner.
Patriots -1 (-107)
Risk 1.5 Units to win 1.4
Zabe’s Futures
In this section, I will keep track of any futures that I will be placing for The Blog.
December 11, 2022:
Georgia to win the NCAAF Championship (-130)
Risk 4 Units to win 3.08
If you have been following along on my Saturday “The Bets” blogs, you will know my opinion on this Georgia team and the other three teams in this playoff. Georgia is just SO much better.
Remember Bama in their hay day? Yeah, that is this team and we are STILL getting decent odds because people don’t want to accept that the playoff system is still non-competitive.
Now, this play DOES count for the blog. If it hits, it will go toward The Blog’s total. If it misses, the -4 will still go towards The Blog’s total.
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Confused by what all these numbers mean in “The Bets”?
Check out Behind the Blog to learn a little more about what this all means! It’s really not that complicated!
