THE ZABE IS BACK The Bets: Wednesday 6/7/23
I am so fucking back. I have missed this shit, and now with work as a teacher going on summer break and my Spring Coaching season is over, it is time to fire off some ignorant takes. This first one will be gambling related, but boy oh boy do I have some things I have noticed since March.
Speaking of last March, the last blog was absolutely lethal. 3-0 to go +2.92 Units making my grand set at…
-0.39 Units (+2.12 Lifetime)
Obviously, I have taken breaks from betting on games and writing about my bets, but only being down a fraction of a unit six months into the year is not bad. Every single Common-Joe gambler would accept that as a win, but not this guy.
And I know Archie won’t take that either, I’ve somewhat missed that guy in my comments. Hope he comes back.
Let’s get to it. I am a baseball guy through and through. Love playing the sport. Love watching the sport. LOVE betting on the sport. Let’s get some easy wins here, and with game 2 of the NBA (yawn) Finals tonight, we will have some picks on that as well at the end of the blog.
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Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees 6:05 pm CST
(Yankees -120, O/U 8.5)
As a Chicago guy, I watch both teams. I am a clear fan of the Cubs, but I do pay attention to the Sox. I like their vibe don’t get me wrong, but man has this team been built like shit.
There are probably 4 guys on this team that should be the DH. Why would someone draft, trade for, or sign so many players with defensive issues, I don’t know, but fuck defensively does this team STINK!
Offensively, they are in a slump. It makes no sense why this lineup isn’t hitting the ball, they all shouldn’t be this bad, right? Even the post-game crew just ROASTS the shit out of the team! Take a look at this…
Everyone knows how bad they are doing, that’s why I love betting on them!
When this dude Lance Lynn is not on the bump. He is TERRIBLE this year. Throwing only 16% of his pitches as off-speed the guys up at the plate know what’s coming. Not many at-bats go to 9 pitches in the big leagues, so to know you may only get ONE off-speed pitch out of nine is insane.
And it’s not like his heater is getting guys out either. Baseball Savant is a great way to track players’ sabermetrics, and his are off the charts.
This year and two years ago is two completely different pitchers. 2023 Lynn’s heater has a +14 Run value to it… THAT IS INSANE. Those pitches that he is throwing 84% of the time are giving the other team runs. Compared to 2021 Lynn these high-speed pitches had a -36 Run value.
The same is with his expected batting average and expected slugging. He sucks. Bet against him always!
FanDuel has a cool promo with a profit boost right now, where you can increase a line by 30%. Use it here.
Yankees ML -120 BOOSTED +109
Risk 1 Unit to win 1.09
Baltimore Orioles @ Milwaukee Brewers 6:40 pm CST
(Brewers -142, O/U 8)
Another pitcher that I love to either bet on or against. Dean Kremer of the Orioles is so fascinating. He either sucks, or he is on. It totally depends on the team he is against, and boy is this a team.
The Brew Crew. This team should be fucking GOOD, but they aren’t. Woodruff has had two starts and Burnes can’t get it together. Their bats just aren’t going either. Their bullpen is solid, but that does no good when you are down late in games anyway.
Dean Kremer is the man on the mound for the Orioles and Burnes for the Brewers. Kremer does very well against struggling bats, and that is the exact definition of this Brewer team.
But I love Burnes here as well. He is starting to figure things out and will put up a great, deep performance. This spells UNDER
Baltimore/Milwaukee UNDER 8 (-115)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.87
Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat 7:30 pm CST
(Denver -2.5, O/U 213.5)
I know I didn’t write about them, but I have been all over these finals. Game 1, a tired Heat going into elevation, it was Nugs Spread easily.
Game 2 Heat finding their role players and having a team game take over, got that Heat ML easily!
Game 3 is a different story. Coaches making adjustments, fine-tuning some things, and putting their balls on the line here. In the NBA, coaching doesn’t matter a lot, but to these two teams, it does.
When you don’t have a jack-ass star that just does whatever he wants, then the team can work as a unit. The NBA has not had a finals without a jack-ass since the early 2000s with the Spurs/Nets or Spurs/Pistons.
Erik Spoelstra is the best coach in the league. There is no question about that, and he got his guys going in game 2. Game 3 the adjustments are up to Michael Malone, which I also like as a coach. He never has a voice it’s always gone but I just love that.
Malone knows that Jokic was the only guy going last game, so what will Nikola do here? Get EVERYONE involved. This is going to be one of those games where the Joker only shoots the ball 8 times but still ends up with a triple-double.
Spo will adjust as well, that’s why the under is the play. Lots of defense. Nobody wants to go down 1-2, big game and probably very physical.
Another FanDuel plug, but again they have a 30% boost here that I love for the game on “Player Doubles”
This is a bet where you choose a team to win, and a player to meet or exceed a statistic ie: Jimmy Butler scores 20+ and the Heat win.
One I found that I LOVED and will bet it here as well…
Nikola Jokic Triple Double AND Nuggets win +200 BOOSTED +260
Risk 1 Unit to win 2.6
Nuggets/Heat UNDER 213.5 (-110)
Risk 1.5 Units to win 1.36
Zabe’s Futures
In this section, I will keep track of any futures that I will be placing for The Blog.
December 11, 2022: CASHED
Georgia to win the NCAAF Championship (-130)
Risk 4 Units to win 3.08
Zabe’s Past
2022 Total (October start): +2.51 Units
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