The Bets: Thursday 9/7/23
I feel like an addict that has gone to rehab and is straight again. I put down that needle, I don’t need to chase the dragon anymore.
But the minute I published that last blog… oh fuck I am so back. I’m so back I am prepared to have the best season of my life. My (future) children’s schooling is going to be paid off with this.
If they want to go to school, I don’t give a fuck. I’m going to be so fucking rich after this season I’m going to have some douche bag kids rolling around in Daddy’s Gambling money.
Last time I wrote, I went 2-1 (with a rainout no action) and Jokic saved my day with a triple double, giving us +2.96 Units, and now making my total going into the NFL at…
+2.57 Units (+5.08 Lifetime)
Even though I have not written, I have been gambling. I’ve kept the touch. I am just at the start of THE hot streak. Let’s just focus on our ONE game tonight that will get me AMPED and ready to go…
NFL IS FUCKING BACK BABY
Just imagine I’m that blonde and those ribs are every piece of football media leading up to this game. It’s dripping down my chin
Check out all of my plays on my Action Network mobile page!
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs 7:20 pm CST
(Chiefs -4.5, O/U 53.5)
I’m a kid on Christmas. NFL is back. I actually couldn’t sleep last night I was so excited to share this great news with you all!
I have the bet. The bet that YOU need to make in order to think “Hey, this Zabe guy knows a thing or two about a thing or two”
Do YOU like free money! Then here’s what you have to look at! Patrick Mahomes.
The dude is a monster. Don’t ever count him out. I get it that Kelce is going to be out, that is a huge blow, but the number has already dropped 2 points and is continuing to fall, so don’t take that into account.
What you DO need to take into account is everyone else around Mahomes with Kelce out. I peeped into who was getting the most work in training camp and what coaches have been saying, and outside of Kelce, here are the top weapons for Mahomes.
Isiah Pacheco
Skyy Moore (Sounds like a pornstar name)
Richie James
Justyn Ross
If you don’t know all of those guys, it’s okay you don’t know ball. But here is the important factor. Kelce leads by example. He is the Robin to Patrick’s Batman. Without Robin, we got Bruce Wayne just trying to beat the bad guys by himself in undies.
The big key here is the LACK of GRIT. These guys have never had to listen to Patrick when behind and believe “Yeah we can do this” it’s always been: Listen to Pat, turn to Kelce, then believe “Yeah we can do this” without that middle piece, they are going to be lost.
Average age of those 4 top weapons? TWENTY-FOUR (24)
And… what is their Average Playing Career? One Year…..
Too young.
AND IN COMES DETROIT
This team is going to be pretty damn impressive this year. It’s not because of their offense either.
It’s that DEFENSE that are going to be DAWGS man… Even the last hand full of games last year they were starting to LOCK teams down.
Tie that in with a shaky offense for Kansas City, and you are screaming UNDER as well. ESPECIALLY the first half under.
Nerves are going, dropped balls, missed plays, bonehead mistakes. All things to slow down an offense and bail out a defense. First half under is a lock. Full game fuck it why not.
Also, a little stat porn for you (two porn references, NFL season gets me going):
Since 2020, Kansas City as a regular season favorite of 3.5 or more are 14-25. That stat floored me. 36% of the time they cover.
And Dan “The Man” Campbell? Well… as a head coach, when his team is the DOG of 3.5 or more in the regular season, he is 17-9. 65% cover rate. That is impressive enough for me to believe. I’m going to get so sloppy all over this game.
Detroit Lions +4.5 (-115)
Risk 2 Unit to win 1.74
First Half Under 27 (-120)
Risk 2.4 Units to win 2
(Using Fanduel’s profit boost because I’m scummy)
Same Game Parlay:
Lions +3.5
First Half Under 26.5
Full Game Under 53.5
Porn star Skyy Moore Any Time Touchdown
+2225 BOOSTED +3338
Risk 1.5 Units to win 50.07
Zabe’s Futures
In this section, I will keep track of any futures that I will be placing for The Blog.
December 11, 2022: CASHED
Georgia to win the NCAAF Championship (-130)
Risk 4 Units to win 3.08
Zabe’s Past
2022 Total (October start): +2.51 Units
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