The Bets: Saturday 11/5/22
“Honestly, the blogs are helping me. It makes me think of the things I wouldn’t even consider.”
Love hearing shit like that. That’s the point of this. We gotta consider the outside factors, like the fucked up tweets going into a Thursday Night Football game.
After the win yesterday, we are up +0.94 Units to bring The Blogs total to….
+6.34 Units
…I’ve been so hot on college football, so lets continue this trend and MAKE SOME MONEY
If you want to see my Full Card (it’s not that bad this week) please check out my Action Network mobile page!
Like always, I am limiting the blogs to 5 plays. This is probably my favorite college football slate of the year, so let’s look at the best bets for the day.
Air Force @ Army 10:30 am CST
(Airforce -7, O/U 40.5)
This is a very basic bet, but one of those that no matter the number, no matter how great each team is, that service academy vs service academy unders need to be bet.
I can go into the stats and the trends why this is an easy lock, but that really isn't necessary.
The reason why these unders are so easy is because the service academies all run the triple option. So when an academy’s defense has practiced how to play against that player's whole career, they know how to approach every play.
On top of it, the NCAA made it even more difficult to run the triple option this year. It is now illegal to block outside the tackle box on scrimmage plays. Meaning, it is a lot harder to create those lanes and piles.
A lot of offensive penalties, and a lot of plays for 0-2 yards.
Airforce/Army Under 40.5 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
Ohio State @ Northwestern 11:00 am CST
(Ohio State -38, O/U 55)
DING DING DING!!! LET’S GO DAILY DOUBLE TIME! I won’t be making this a TRUE Daily Double, but I have to put more than one unit on this.
Last week I had a college football Daily Double that I got boned by an Oklahoma state team putting up 0 points, when all I needed was 9 more for the over.
Anyway, I love this spot so much. Ohio State is debatably the most complete team in the country, and they have a cake walk Saturday morning.
College is not like the NFL, there is no such thing as too many points. Players are always going balls to the wall trying to show up and show out.
But have you seen Evanston, Illinois? Talk about weird vibes, man. It’s not a fun place to play at 11:00 am local time. It’s very easy to sleep walk into Evanston and realize it’s only a 14 point game in the fourth quarter.
The weather is another thing that just gets me going for this game. Winds consistently at 24 mph and gusts up to 46 mph tells me not much offense coming into this game. I’m not sure if the Buckeye’s can put up 38, let alone cover 38.
Listen, I am not saying that the Wildcat’s are going to win this game. Ohio State will continue their perfect season, but 38 points at 11 am in Evanston is just too much.
Pat Fitzgerald has a really shitty roster with very little talent. But he is going to show he still has his fastball here today.
Northwestern +38 (-110)
Risk 1.5 Units to win 1.36
Tennessee @ Georgia 2:30 pm CST
(Georgia -8.5, O/U 65)
DING DING DING!!! WE HAVE ANOTHER ONE BITCHES!!! A SECOND Daily Double for this fine Saturday slate. In another game I just love the line
Georgia’s defense is NFL level, and Tennessee’s offense is so fun to watch. Something has to give.
I mentioned in last weeks “The Bets” that I have a future on Tennessee to make the College Football Playoffs, so naturally I want to just root for them to win outright here.
But god dammit, this is such an easy spot for the Bulldogs
I don’t understand it. I think it’s the coach for me. I can’t trust Hank Hill’s son for this long.
Georgia is a team that for some reason does not have many big home games in conference.
They had one big game in Athens this year against Oregon, and absolutely smoked them
But the last time Georgia hosted an SEC Rival where both teams had championship hopes was a long time ago. I had to go all the way back to 2018 when Georgia hosted Bama and both had undefeated records.
2018??? That means the entire undergrad population have never been a part of a game at this magnitude. That stadium is going to be rocking.
Tennessee was underdogs of 9 at HOME against Bama, and now are underdogs of 8.5 on the ROAD to Georgia?
News flash: Georgia is better than Bama, and it’s harder to play in Athens than in Knoxville.
According to Action Network, the Public LOVES Tennessee here to. 70% of the tickets are coming in on Tennessee +8.5 and 72% of the money as well. Let’s be sharp.
Georgia -8.5 (-110)
Risk 1.5 Units to win 1.36
Alabama @ LSU 6:00 pm CST
These games are always fun. Alabama/LSU may be one of my favorite rivalries in College Football. Especially when it is in Death Valley.
Saban is always on edge against his former team, but in a good way. He get’s ready and has that old man pissed off energy about him
But when the sun goes down, LSU gets ROWDY
The last time LSU beat Alabama, the Tigers had the best team in College Football history, and they were still 6 point underdogs (on the road).
The total of 56.5 is the lowest it has been in four years. I don’t love either side with the over/under, but I do love the home dogs here
Brian Kelly has had this team playing at a different level the past few weeks, ever since their embarrassment against Tennessee at home.
It’s a long shot, but if the Tigers somehow win this game they can be in the conversation of running the table and finding that 4 seed at the end of the year.
LSU +13.5 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
Clemson @ Notre Dame 6:30 pm CST
(Clemson -4, O/U 44.5)
Last game for the blog, and another great game for Saturday
Clemson is not a normal Clemson team. They are not that good. The quarterback play is very weak, causing the team to become one dimensional at times.
Notre Dame is not that much better. One of the worst Notre Dame teams I have seen in a while. I wish this was a better Clemson team and a better Notre Dame team, but here we are.
Notre Dame can’t throw the ball either, so they will be running the ball constantly.
Clemson’s offense might not be amazing, but still have an elite defense.
Notre Dame will be lucky to score more than 17 this game, and I am going to trust that Clemson can get me at least 21
Clemson -4 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
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