The Bets: Sunday 9/17/23
Prime-Time Zabe strikes again
I have been 100% on the late-night, stand-alone games this NFL season. Not only did my over hit, but the two props that I told you all to think about also hit. That is 3 winners from 1 game.
Tail The Zabe, win the moneys. Boom.
I didn’t do it all on my own, however. Shout out to The Nose for sniffing out these winners for me. Unfortunately, we have not talked about tonight’s Dolphins-Pats game yet, so I will have a play, but make sure you are keeping up with my Action Network mobile page to find our lock of the night.
1-0 Thursday night went to a +1.30 Units to bring the Blog’s total to…
+6.68 Units (+9.19 Lifetime)
In this here blog, we got a lock of the week plus some great insight on some easy games. So let’s go!
Check out all of my plays on my Action Network mobile page!
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(Buccaneers -2.5, O/U 40.5)
Bears fans; listen up.
Last week wasn’t a nightmare. It happened. Your team stunk, the Packers did not.
But, what have I been preaching in every single blog since I wrote the NFL preview?
DON’T OVERREACT TO THE FIRST FEW GAMES (unless it’s Dallas who is amazing)
The fact here is that the Bears went from being a favorite against the Packers, to a dog against the Bucs…. That is such a big swing.
Against the Pack, there are a lot of emotions. Things get chippy, and out of hand. If you are not a confident or experienced player, you start to do things you normally don’t do.
That rule applies to coaches as well. I have no fucking clue what kind of gameplan that was that Eberflus’ team drew up, but it fucking sucked.
I am giving him and the rest of the team the benefit of the doubt here. Emotions got in the way of what is going to be a great good fun team.
Go back to the well. Bear down, Bear over. The offense is legit, the defense sucks. A Fields and Baker shootout that leads to a Bears win.
Bears to win outright (+120)
Risk 1 Unit to win 1.20
Bears/Bucs OVER 40.5 (-115)
Risk 1.5 Units to win 1.30
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
(Chargers -2.5, O/U 45.5)
Don’t. Overreact. To. Week. 1.
Titans offense looked like shit and the Chargers offense looked explosive.
The reason for both of these is simple.
The Titans DID play the game they wanted to. Took the Saints and dragged them through the mud with them. A great throw (which is rare to see) by Carr gave the Saints a win.
The Chargers played the Dolphins game. Miami wanted a shootout, knowing that their team had the best chance to come out on top that way. Poor coaching by LA led to that happening.
Now what will happen here?
Another mud fight.
Tennessee is going to drag Herbert by his pretty little hair down into the mud to do some pig pen wrestling. That is not the script LA needs to win, but their poor coaching has no idea how to get out of another team’s script.
If Tennessee was the favorite, I wouldn’t touch this game. But they are at home as dogs. Easy Vrable hype squad spot.
Take the Home dog here. 0-2 start for the Charger
Titans to win outright (+126)
Risk 1 Unit to win 1.26
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
(Bengals -3, O/U 45.5)
The Bengals fucking stunk. But Vegas knew not to overreact and they are FAVORITES against this Ravens team.
Yes, it is super unfortunate what happened to JK Dobbins. Such a talented player that has been riddled with injuries his whole career. But the absence of Dobbins shouldn’t affect the game THIS much.
It’s not an overreaction if it is history.
Last year, the Bengals lost as favorites in overtime to the Steelers in week 1, and then lost as favorites to Cooper Rush and the Cowboys in week 2.
Two years ago, the Bengals narrowly won as favorites in overtime to the Vikings in week 1, and then lost as favorites to the Bears in week 2.
It takes Burrow and company to take time to gel. It is a fact.
Disgusting that Baltimore are dogs here. Take the points, as a field goal in overtime may decide this game.
I’m also going to get so fucking cute here and bet that the game goes into overtime. It would only make sense given the Bengals week 1 and 2 track record.
Ravens +3 (-104)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.96
Ravens/Bengals to go to Overtime (+1460)
Risk 0.25 Units to win 3.65
New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys
(Cowboys -8.5, O/U 38.5)
What is the golden rule?
Don’t overreact to the first few games.
.
.
UNLESS IT’S FUCKING DALLAS WHO ARE FUCKING AMAZING AT EVERYTHING THEY FUCKING DO
Oh my god, I am so bought in. Hand up. This is a heart-pick. But it is DISGUSTING how great this Dallas defense is.
With Zach Wilson starting and telling the media “I’m not worried about being able to score on Sunday in Dallas” this team is going to be FIRED UP.
Listen…. DAK STINKS
We know this, but he literally just needs to hand the ball off. He will not be needed. Jets will score ZERO points.
The Cardinals next week against Dallas will score ZERO points.
Best defense to ever play football (outside of the 85 Bears, pay respect)
BUT FUCK THE 2000 RAVENS YOU HAD A MURDERER ON YOUR TEAM YOU FUCKS
Dallas will enter week 4 giving up ZERO points. The only way someone scores against this team in the next two weeks is a Dak pick 6, or a safety. NO OTHER WAY BABY
LOCK OF THE WEEK JETS UNDER FUCK EM
Cowboys -8.5 (-115)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.87
New York Jets Team Total UNDER 13.5 (-102)
Risk 2 Units to win 1.96
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
(Dolphins -2.5, O/U 46.5)
Warning: The Nose and The Zabe are so fucking hot, and have not discussed this game yet.
I’ll be real: I love working with people on games like this. We are hot, so here’s my lean, but be prepared for me to update the blog before the snap adding a play or two.
If you’re curious what it looks like for The Nose and The Zabe to work together, here it is:
Here’s the deal. Miami has an explosive offense. BUT, this is a divisional game. If there is one person in this world that can pick apart even the best offenses, it’s big dick Bill Belichick.
Night games, on the road, against a divisional opponent, points are hard to score.
I’m going to take the under here, but I also like Patriots with the points. Let’s see what The Nose and The Zabe cook up tonight. Should be a doozy.
Dolphins/Patriots UNDER 46.5 (-115)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.87
Zabe’s Futures
In this section, I will keep track of any futures that I will be placing for The Blog.
December 11, 2022: CASHED
Georgia to win the NCAAF Championship (-130)
Risk 4 Units to win 3.08
Zabe’s Past
2022 Total (October start): +2.51 Units
Want to stay up to date?
Make sure you visit the homepage and scroll to the bottom! There, you can enter your email and be reminded every time Zabe posts a blog!
Confused by what all these numbers mean in “The Bets”?
Check out Behind the Blog to learn a little more about what this all means! It’s really not that complicated!
