The Bets: Sunday 9/24/23
I got cute. Hand up. I broke my rule…
Only bet 1 unit.
Feel free to go to 1.5 if you LOVE the game, MAYBE 2. I was out here throwing units around like a gigolo throws singles at a strip club.
I got careless. Learn gamblers, learn.
I didn’t have The Nose with me on my Thursday Bets… Maybe I am nothing without him in my primetime slot.
He would have smelled that loser instantly….
ANYWAY….
Thursday night 0-3 hurts. -3.5 Units also hurts… It brings the Blog’s total to…
+9.15 Units (+11.66 Lifetime)
I’m still sticking with my system for week 3. It has made a lot of profit historically.
1 Daily Double today as well… and I hate the bet so much….
Also, the fact that there are only 3 games in the late afternoon slot is fucking bullshit. Cowboys/Cards and Bears/Chiefs are blow outs. Seahawks/Panthers will be good but boring. Fuck that. Fix it, NFL.
Check out all of my plays on my Action Network mobile page! I’m getting greasy and doing a 7 team round robin this week. Can lose a lot of cash or win a lot, let’s see how it goes.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings 12:00 pm CST
(Vikings -1, O/U 53.5)
I have been so right about the Chargers this year. I am on them like white on rice. I can read this team like a book.
The Chargers are so poorly coached and poorly led by their choke artist QB who got paid for being mediocre that they play to their opponent’s script.
And what’s the script this week? Air raid.
Justin Jefferson has yet to get a touchdown, but he will today.
Kirk Cousins is going to spread the ball all around and bet all of the receiving props. Literally.
Herbert will as well, look for his receivers to get yards and titties as well, but it is all about the points today.
Bet the over. I have a feeling we see a Kirk mistake that screws the team over and let’s Herbert look like a hero (Even though he is not).
I am not betting on the Chargers, but if you follow the System of 0-2 ATS teams in week 3 covering 62% of the time you take the Chargers here.
That system didn’t work out Thursday, but it will today.
Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
Chargers/Vikings OVER 53.5 (-105)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.95
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars 12:00 pm CST
(Jaguars -7.5, O/U 43.5)
System Play. And I love the Texans
I don’t know why I like this team so much. Maybe just because the product they are putting on the field is SO much better than what it was last year.
It reminds me of the 2019-2021 Lions. They are not great, and their record is shit, but they go out and play hard every single game.
I am probably going to sprinkle on the Texans ML here. Jacksonville is severely overrated. Lawrence has not made that next step, and this isn’t the week he does.
Bet on the rookie. Take the points and enjoy this divisional battle that will be close.
Texans +7.5 (-114)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.88
Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins 12:00 pm CST
(Dolphins -6, O/U 47.5)
This is another system play, but also an obvious square bet alert spot.
The Broncos look terrible. Russel is shit and Sean Payton looks like he wants to murder his QB.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are having fun. They are looking like the best team in the AFC right now and Tua is currently the favorite to win NFL MVP
(yes you read that correctly)
Waddle being out is actually going to be a big deal. Look for this to be Denver Defence’s coming out party. Hill gets locked down and the Dolphins struggle to move the ball down field.
Denver does stink on offense still so that screams under. The system also says Broncos plus the points due to them being ass the first two weeks. Don't panic, take the points.
Broncos +6 (-114)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.88
Broncos/Dolphins UNDER 47.5 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs 3:25 pm CST
(Chiefs -12.5, O/U 48.5)
DING DING DING!!! DAIIIIILLLLYYY DOUBBBLLLEEEE
If you are a new reader, you may not know what the fuck this is.
The Daily Double appears when I have a play I am going to bet more than 1 unit on a game (I have gotten away from this being up, gotta go back to my roots)
There are two plays here. They both fucking suck and this game is going to suck I am going to hate every minute of it, but money is money and we gotta make some here.
Justin Fields stinks. Fact. This happened last year. Then, he started saying fuck it I’m just going to run. And it actually worked out and looked nice nice.
Now, I am not saying Bears ML (but +500 does look sexy) I am saying that with Chicago going 0-2 ATS they have a good chance here to cover…
AND If you remember the opening night, this stat went hard against KC and helped us to a Lions win…
KC since 2020 as a favorite of 3.5 or more are now 14-26 ATS… 29% of the time they cover….
TRUE Daily Double on the Bears spread here. Worst case it’s a backdoor cover with Fields on the bench because he stinks so hard.
I do think Fields does stay in the game and uses his legs. I am going to put a little extra on the Over here as well. Chicago Overs are nice, and common betters won’t take it since Chicago has never been an over team. Once the number adjusts I will too, but it has yet to.
Chicago Bears +12.5 (-115)
Risk 2 Units to win 1.74
Bears/Chiefs OVER 48.5 (-110)
Risk 1.5 Units to win 1.36
Zabe’s Futures
In this section, I will keep track of any futures that I will be placing for The Blog.
December 11, 2022: CASHED
Georgia to win the NCAAF Championship (-130)
Risk 4 Units to win 3.08
Zabe’s Past
2022 Total (October start): +2.51 Units
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