The Bets: Saturday 11/19/22
I need to quit it with the NBA sides, I think I am something like 1-3 on them.
Props and totals? Fine. Sides? No more, Zabe
Easy read on Tulane/SMU and Tennessee over the Pack
2-2 on Thursday lead us to -0.18 Units to bring The Blogs total to….
+9.73 Units
Enough of these small little losses and wins, let’s have a 5-0 college football day
If you want to see my Full Card (so far I have 11 plays) please check out my Action Network mobile page!
Like always, I am limiting the blogs to 5 plays. Let’s go. Apologies if people miss this first game oops
TCU @ Baylor 11:00 am CST
(TCU -2, O/U 57.5)
TCU looked amazing last week against the Longhorns
I like to think of myself as a Texas football guy, and I was shocked by that game
TCU is three wins away from clinching a playoff birth, can’t lose focus now.
Baylor looked like absolute shit losing 31-3 as favorites against KSU last week
Unreal performance from those scumbags
But you gotta buy low and sell high
This line is fucking SUUUUUS
TCU should be a two-score favorite but it’s a 2 point game?
Baylor is going to sneak out the win; put TCU’s playoff hopes to bed. Tennessee and Michigan can celebrate
Baylor +2 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
LA-Lafayette @ Florida State 11:00 am CST
(FSU -25, O/U 52.5)
Here is the angle you have to look at this game from; compare ULL to a team FSU has played in the last 5 weeks
The team I see ULL being comparable to is Miami, which FSU absolutely DESTROYED
….but the spread was only 6.5?
This line of 24 is so, so inflated. Yes, there is a chance that FSU does cover, but that is a worst-case scenario for ULL.
Meaning, if both teams play average, ULL covers. If both teams play well, ULL covers. If FSU plays well and ULL average, ULL STILL COVERS.
If ULL shits their pants, and FSU takes the foot off the gas peddle, ULL COVERS
As long as both ULL doesn’t shit, and FSU doesn’t decide to look like their 2014 team this is an easy lock.
Too many points for two teams that really are not that far apart
ULL +25 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
Ohio State @ Maryland 2:30 pm CST
(Ohio State -27, O/U 62.5)
Ohio State is the only team in the country that can beat Georgia in the playoffs. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again.
But they have to stay fucking discipline. Too many times do we see them playing a far inferior opponent and letting them stay close
This bet is more of an Ohio State focus check. Can they keep focus knowing that they have Michigan next week? Is this a look-ahead spot?
If the Buckeye’s offense comes out slow, bet the house on a Georgia national championship repeat. It would be a lock
But I do know, the defense will come to play today. After getting exposed by Penn state in late October, they have been airtight like your favorite Brazzers star
Maryland has scored 10 points in their last two games, and look to see that trend continue
Don’t trust Ohio State to score, so I won’t lock the line, but I probably will still bet it. The under is the play here.
If Ohio State doesn’t come close to covering the spread, I will put multiple units on Georgia National Championship, and that’s a Zabe Guarantee type of bet.
Ohio State/Maryland Under 62.5 (-110)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.91
Tennessee @ South Carolina 6:00 pm CST
(TENN -23, O/U 66.5)
If you read my take on the Volunteers last week or read the College Football Playoff preview, you probably know my feelings towards this team.
This team is on the outside looking in. If TCU loses, they can still find themselves being the 5 seed in a Georgia, OSU, Michigan, LSU/USC situation.
Tennessee cannot afford to look weak, at all. A close Michigan/Ohio State game means both teams should be in.
Tennessee really shot itself in the foot by looking like an FCS school against their Bulldog Rivals.
I do think Tennessee keeps blowing teams out, dark skies in South Carolina will spell doom for the GameCocks
Tennessee -23 (-105)
Risk 1 Unit to win 0.95
Utha @ Oregon 9:30 pm CST
(Utah -2, O/U 60)
Oregon are fucking scumbag cheaters. They try to manipulate “injuries” to try to get timeouts, and I LOVE that they lost last week.
Now, their leader of Bo Nix is looking like he won’t play. This adjusted the line by 5 points
FIVE! That is a shit ton
As the long-time leader of the “Bo Nix Stinks” fan club, if he is out, this HELPS the Ducks, not hurt them
Why are we still acting like this dude is good? He has failed upward his entire football career.
He was considered a five-star recruit and committed to Auburn after he lead his high school team to a 5-5 record.
What the fuck? if 5-5 gets you Auburn?
Then he plays at Auburn and is a total bum, he gets benched.
So he transfers to a better school with a better program? And starts?
I don’t know what the Nix family has on people in college football, but he is so fucking terrible. If he plays, I will be flopping over to Utah HEAVY.
But my inside sources tell me he’s out. I don’t care who the backup is. He will look great and I will write about why that kid wasn’t starting all year long.
Fuck I just talked myself into making this a DAILY DOUBLE
Again, I will count this for the blog if Bo plays or not, but if he Does play, I will be tripling this bet on Utah…
Oregon +2 (-110)
Risk 1.5 Units to win 1.36
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